Estimate of the final 3 Elections
2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee

Updated May 23, 2008, 7am

These estimates are based on the complex proportional percentage allocation system using Congressional Districts plus Statewide allocation for the remaining 10 elections.

The PLEO & At-Large are based on the Statewide results. The Congressional Districts won't reflect the specific areas, but will be using them just as a number to calculate the Delegates that are available in each.

*Reminder, these are just my own estimates*

Note: There are approximately 4-5 Million Registered Voters yet to cast their ballots in the last 3 elections.

State: Approximate
Registered Voters:		 Clinton
Delegates:		 Obama
Delegates:
Montana 649,436 8 8
Puerto Rico 2,440,131 33 22
South Dakota 489,281 7 8

Total:

 3,578,848 48 38

Difference:

   +10  

2,210 Total Delegates Needed / 2,026 without FL & MI

Neither Candidate can reach 2,210 without Super Delegates
86 Pledged left in remaining elections / 239 Supers haven't endorsed yet (209 without FL & MI)

(Edwards has 9 Pledged Delegates left / 20 including Florida)


 

Estimated Delegates after final 3 Elections
Without FL & MI:
  Popular Vote: Est.
Pledged:		 Current
Supers:		 Total:  
Clinton: n/a 1548 282 1830 2026
Obama: with Edwards remaining Deles. 1704 307 2011
Clinton possibly pulls slightly ahead in Votes -156 -25 -181

Estimated Delegates after final 3 Elections
With FL & MI from the January results

  
Clinton: n/a 1726 297 2023 2210
Obama: with Edwards remaining Deles. 1784 317 2101
Clinton ahead good probability in Votes -58 -20 -78

Estimated after final 3 Elections
with FL & with the 69/59 MI Proposal

  
Clinton: n/a 1722 297 2019 2210
Obama:: with Edwards remaining Deles. 1843 317 2160
Clinton ahead good probability in Votes -121 -20 -141

Estimate of the Final 6 Elections:

Guam
Closed Caucus - May 3, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 3 16.650% to 49.983% 1 49.984% to 83.316% 2
PLEO 0 n/a 0 n/a 0
At-Large 1 45% to 54% .5 45% to 54% .5
Total: 4

Clinton -

 1.5

Obama -

 2.5

Indiana
Modified Primary - May 6, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.972% to 41.658% 2
CD2 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
CD3 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
CD4 4 62.488% to 87.487% 3 15% to 37.487% 1
CD5 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
CD6 5 49.990% to 69.989% 3 29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD7 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.972% to 41.658% 2
CD8 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
CD9 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
PLEO 9 49.995% to 61.105% 5 38.884% to 49.994% 4
At-Large 16 54% to 59% 9 41% to 46% 7
Total: 72

Clinton -

 41

Obama -

 31

Kentucky
Closed Primary - May 20, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1  5  49.990% to 69.989% 3  29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD2  5   49.990% to 69.989% 3  29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD3  8  56.244% to 68.743% 6 31.244% to 43.743% 2
CD4  5  49.990% to 69.989% 3  29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD5  5  29.990% to 49.989% 2  49.990% to 69.989% 3
CD6  6  58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.992% to 41.658% 2
PLEO 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4  24.992% to 41.658% 2
At-Large 11 49.996% to 59.086% 6 40.905% to 49.995% 5
Total::  51

Clinton -

 31

Obama -

 20

Montana
Open Primary - June 3, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
East 5  49.990% to 69.989% 3  29.990% to 49.989%  2
West 5 29.990% to 49.989% 2   49.990% to 69.989% 3
PLEO 2 24.975% to 74.974% 1 24.975% to 74.974% 1
At-Large 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
Total: 16

Clinton -

 8

Obama -

 8

North Carolina
Modified Primary - May 6, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
CD2 6 24.992% to 41.658% 2 58.325% to 74.991% 4
CD3 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
CD4 9 38.884% to 49.994% 4 49.995% to 61.105% 5
CD5 5 49.990% to 69.989% 3 29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD6 5 29.990% to 49.989% 2 49.990% to 69.989% 3
CD7 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
CD8 5 49.990% to 69.989% 3 29.990% to 49.989% 2
CD9 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.992% to 41.658% 2
CD10 5 29.990% to 49.989% 2 49.990% to 69.989% 3
CD11 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
CD12 7 64.279% to 78.564% 5 21.422% to 35.707% 2
CD13 7 35.708% to 49.992% 3 49.993% to 64.278% 4
PLEO 12 45.829% to 54.162% 6 45.829% to 54.162% 6
At-Large 26 45% to 48% 12 49% to 55% 14
Total: 115

Clinton -

 57

Obama -

 58

Oregon
Closed Primary - May 20, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 7 49.993% to 64.278% 4 35.708% to 49.992% 3
CD2  5 29.990% to 49.989% 2 49.990% to 69.989% 3
CD3 9 49.995% to 61.105% 5 38.884% to 49.994% 4
CD4 7 35.708% to 49.992% 3 49.993% to 64.278% 4
CD5 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.992% to 41.658% 2
PLEO  6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
At-Large 12 45.829% to 54.162% 6 45.829% to 54.162% 6
Total:  52

Clinton -

 27

Obama -

 25

Puerto Rico
Open Primary - June 1, 2008:

SD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
SD1 5 ? 49.990% to 69.989% 3 29.990% to 49.989% 2
SD2 5 69.990% to 89.989% 4 15% to 29.989% 1
SD3 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
SD4 5 ? 29.990% to 49.989% 2 49.990% to 69.989% 3
SD5 4 37.488% to 62.487% 2 37.488% to 62.487% 2
SD6 5 ? 49.990% to 69.989% 3 29.990% to 49.989% 2
SD7 4 62.488% to 87.487% 3 15% to 37.487% 1
SD8 4 62.488% to 87.487% 3 15% to 37.487% 1
PLEO 7 49.993% to 64.278% 4 35.708% to 49.992% 3
At-Large 12 54.163% to 62.495% 7 37.496% to 45.828% 5
Total: 55

Clinton -

 33

Obama -

 22

South Dakota
Closed Primary - June 3, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 9 38.884% to 49.994% 4 49.995% to 61.105% 5
PLEO 2 24.975% to 74.974% 1 24.975% to 74.974% 1
At-Large 4 37.488 % to 62.487% 2 37.488 % to 62.487% 2
Total: 15

Clinton -

 7

Obama -

 8

West Virginia
Modified Primary - May 13, 2008:

CD's

Dele.
Avail.

Clinton
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)

Obama
Percentage Needed

Delegates
Won
(estimate)
CD1 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.992% to 41.658% 2
CD2 6 58.325% to 74.991% 4 24.992% to 41.658% 2
CD3 6 41.659% to 58.324% 3 41.659% to 58.324% 3
PLEO 3 49.984% to 83.316% 2 16.650% to 49.983% 1
At-Large 7 49.993% to 64.278% 4 35.708% to 49.992% 3
Total: 28

Clinton -

 17

Obama -

 11

Total of above estimates:

State: Clinton: Obama:
Guam 1.5 2.5
Indiana 41 31
Kentucky 30 21
Montana 8 8
North Carolina 57 58
Oregon 27 25
Pennsylvania 92 66
Puerto Rico 33 22
South Dakota 7 8
West Virginia 17 11

Total:

 313.5 252.5

Difference:

 +61  

Percentages:

2 Delegates   3 Delegates   4 Delegates   5 Delegates
15% .300 0   15% .450 0   15% .600 1   15% 0.75 1
24.974% .4994     16.649% .4994     37.487% 1.4994     29.989% 1.4994  
24.975% .4995 1   16.650% .4995 1   37.488% 1.4995 2   29.990% 1.4995 2
74.974% 1.4994     49.983% 1.4994     62.487% 2.4994     49.989% 2.4994  
74.975% 1.4995 2   49.984% 1.4995 2   62.488% 2.4995 3   49.990% 2.4995 3
      83.316% 2.4994     87.487% 3.4994     69.989% 3.4994  
      83.317% 2.4995 3   87.488% 3.4995 4   69.990% 3.4995 4
                      89.989% 4.4994  
                      89.990% 4.4995 5
                           
                           
6 Delegates   7 Delegates   8 Delegates   9 Delegates
15% .900 1   15% 1.05 1   15% 1.2 1